Portfolio Progress - Week of August 6, 2007
I took my first plane flight from Florida to Portland, OR about a month ago. Folks kept telling me to take medication, Dramamine, Benadryl, anything to calm me down. I survived without taking anything. I felt proud of myself. But the past week and a half with the stock market has made me reach for that Dramamine. Take a look at yesterday’s action after the Fed decided to hold interest rates. Market goes down 100+ points, it climbs back 100+ points. Friday’s market dropped 260+ points only to have it recover and some Monday. I’ve only been investing for a month or so and it’s even driving me crazy. I don’t understand how some people can stay sane in this market. With that being said, here are some highlights from the past week:
- Friday (8/3) saw the market run itself into the ground over 260 points. Once again we saw that huge selloff right around the 3 pm time frame. I’ve been told its a result of banks and brokers placing margin calls on account and as such forces people to liquidate. Regardless, it’s still not the best feeling in the world seeing your portfolio plummet so hard so fast.
- Friday also brought us Cramer’s rant on CNBC’s Stop Trading. I’ve posted the video. You can also find it on YouTube’s most popular videos of the week (790,000+ views so far). It’s a passionate video. I’m surprised more folks aren’t supporting him.
- Monday (8/6) saw the market rebound 280+ points. Is there any way to let the market know that roller coaster rides are for Busch Gardens and Islands of Adventure?
- Tuesday (8/7) the market was on hold as the FOMC had their meeting on interest rates and the economy. From what I’ve gathered, the FOMC still feels inflation’s more of a concern at this point than the housing / financial markets but they have acknowledged the fact that something may be wrong. It doesn’t look as if they’ll be lowering interest rates any time soon unless a string of foreclosures and bank bankruptcies begin to stream in. From personal experience, I have seen housing prices drop dramatically here in Gainesville. I could only imagine what the new owners (most of which I’m sure are college students) are feeling seeing the cost of their properties drop. Then again college students may not be paying attention to it as well as they should which is a shame. This is where a lack of financial education classes is visible.
- Total Deposits: $1,353.38
- Current Market Value: $1249.50
- Profit (Loss) as of August 8, 2007: -$ 103.88
- Profit (Loss) as of July 30, 2007: -$35.79
- Profit (Loss) as of July 23, 2007: -$23.24
My two biggest holdings, LVLT and XTO, are being hammered recently. I expect LVLT to gather strength once the tech market begins to take off in the fall. XTO’s a play on natural gas. At $55 and change it’s extremely cheap with a PEG of under 1 and a Forward P/E of about 1.2. I still have a target price of $7 on LVLT and $63 on XTO. Natural gas prices should begin to rise with the upcoming winter season preparations. Last winter was an oddly warm one. I hope this winter’s a bit cooler so that natural gas demand rises, and as such, so does my portfolio. Good luck!
Edit: As of this morning, I’ve actually cut my losses in half thanks to an XTO options play and the market being bullish. Hopefully that trend will continue the rest of the day.
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