Investing Adventures

Monday, January 28, 2008

73rd Edition of the Festival of Stocks

Filed under: Miscellaneous — Tags: — Jorge @ 9:16 am

Welcome to the 73rd edition of the Festival of Stocks, brought to you by the folks at Investing Adventures in conjunction with Value Investing News. Hopefully by now you have your long positions in place, the coffee’s hot, and you’re ready to go. Let’s start you off with some reading material to help get you through this Monday morning. Enjoy!

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of festival of stocks using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page. Hope you have your Dramamine refilled for this week. It’s going to be a bumpy ride I think!

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Weekend Reading – January 26, 2008

Filed under: Weekend Reading — Jorge @ 6:10 pm

Here’s another edition of “What You Should Be Reading!” This week, the markets signaled a turn of events for some traders. For one, he’s finally hitting base hits. The other needs to STOP DAYTRADING and follow his rules. Patience looks to be key in a market like this. Without further ado, here we go!

  • Whether it’s luck or finally turning things around, Bubs is finally back on track. Sykes, on the other hand, took a nasty hit this week. Ironically, the week before Bubs was taking nasty hits as he appeared impatient while Sykes had his best week ever being (somewhat) patient.
  • Lady TG gives us a rundown of next week’s earnings reports including the beaten down Google. Something tells me they’re going to disappoint but we’ll see.
  • Congrats to Blain on hitting it big with b5media! Don’t forget about the little guys like us Mr. Bigshot!
  • Rogue trading at it’s finest. But did the SEC and others know about the French rogue trader that cost SocGen $7 billion before the news break?
  • How one trader turned $24.50 into $1100 within hours.  Note the tags on the blog post!

Good luck this week.  I have a feeling it’s going to be another wild one.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Raging Bulls Strike Back

Filed under: Market Pulse — Jorge @ 3:37 pm

600 points. That was the swing from the Dow low on open this morning to the monster bullish close this afternoon. The markets closed up almost 300 points with homebuilders and financials leading the way. Homebuilder sector gained about 11% today as a result of yesterday’s rate cut plus a potential bond bailout plan by officials in New York. The markets are also expecting another 75 bp cut next week when the FOMC meets for their regularly scheduled get together. I don’t think we’re out of the recession woods just yet, but if the FOMC does cut again in addition to the insurers receiving a bailout plan, I think we’ve just seen the bottom of the short bear market. There’s still quite a bit of housing inventory out there, but with mortgage rates nearing the sub-5% region plus decreasing prices, expect folks, such as myself, to seriously look into purchasing and refinancing their homes. Also expect TLC to air new episodes of Flip That House.

Dow Futures Down 250 Points… Again

Filed under: Market Pulse — Jorge @ 6:48 am

Dow futures are down 300 points this morning reaffirming my thoughts that rate cuts mean nothing! Apple’s guidance last night has really set the stage for the rest of the market. If Apple’s warning of lower estimates, what does that do to others such as JCP, COH, other retailers, and the economy in general? Not to put my entire faith in Apple and Steve Jobs, but he’s a bright cookie from what I understand. If he’s seeing a slow down in consumer spending, there aren’t enough rate cuts in the world to fix it. I think we’re in a recession already seeing as how the FOMC is usually about 3-6 months behind the curve.

What would I like to see today? From what I understand, a huge selloff early morning helps flush out the weaker hands leading to a nice end of day rally. Technicians perfer this as compared to the opposite, a huge opening rally with a late day selloff. The late day selloff shows weakness whereas closing strong can help carry the markets the following day. Today should be an interesting day.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Emergency Fed Rate Cut (75bp) – And Why Resistance is Futile

Filed under: FOMC, Market Pulse — Jorge @ 9:51 pm

Last night, the futures market showed the US markets dropping over 500 points on fears of an emerging recession in the US. While I was hiding in fear at the doctor’s office, Bernanke and the FOMC held an emergency meeting and cut interest rates by 75 bp, bringing both the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount Rate to 3.5% and 4%, respectively. The markets initially opened over 400 points down but quickly recovered within minutes and held steady throughout the day, closing down only 120 points.

Black Tuesday 2008?

Obviously some folks welcome the emergency cut and are looking for additional cuts next week. I believe the market, even with the emergency cut today, has another 50 bp baked in (in other words, they’re expecting another 50 bp next week). Here’s the problem I have with these cuts. First off, by cutting interest rates, how does that change the current situation we’re in? It doesn’t. Granted, I’ll help my parents refinance their mortgage and help them save a few bucks monthly, but for the banks and other industries in the market, this doesn’t change their current situation. It doesn’t change the still hot housing market we have (trust me, we’re barely making our $850 a month rent payments… for a 1 bedroom apartment in a small college town). All the rates cut give is hope. Last time I checked, you don’t invest on hope.

Did the 75 bp cut help Apple’s earnings today? By the looks of the 10% after hours hit they’ve taken, I don’t think so. And future cuts won’t help it either.

 

Hello? Recession? Is that you knocking on the door?

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