The past couple of days we’ve seen the markets rally and rally pretty well the entire trading day. The only thing that’s somewhat concerning is the the volume levels the past couple of rally days. They’re definitely not as strong as our down days but they’re not terribly weak either.
Note the moving average line on the volume portion of the graph. I would feel much stronger about the rally if the volume were to spike as it did during the two rally days near the end of January. In any event, we’re rallying it appears. Why?
Remember the game plan a few days ago? Yesterday, retail sales came in above expectations at 0.3%, sending futures skyward. This morning we have jobless claims. Anything under 360K I believe will send the markets even higher and could potentially signal a bottom, at least in the short term. We still have the credit and housing issues, but rather work on those two issues and not have to worry about the consumer themselves.
Jobless claims in about 5 minutes. I’ll keep you posted. Current future levels are reading slightly positive by 6 points on the YMs (Mini-Dow).
There’s a downtrend line from Dec. 25 of last year to Feb. 1st that it hit today.
Comment by reno — Thursday, February 14, 2008 @ 9:39 pm
I see that trendline. It’s a secondary trendline IMO. There’s still an overlying trendline starting closer to the beginning of December. Then again it doesn’t matter because the markets have given up practically everything they’ve gained this week.
Comment by Jorge — Friday, February 15, 2008 @ 10:11 am
I think we are far from bottom and are just at the start of a depression in the United States.
Comment by Jim — Friday, February 15, 2008 @ 5:40 pm
Maybe not a depression, but a mild slowdown most definitely. We’ll see what happens when GDP numbers come out later.
Comment by Jorge — Monday, February 18, 2008 @ 8:48 am