Have We Hit Bottom?

Calendar February 14, 2008 | Posted by Jorge

The past couple of days we’ve seen the markets rally and rally pretty well the entire trading day.  The only thing that’s somewhat concerning is the the volume levels the past couple of rally days.  They’re definitely not as strong as our down days but they’re not terribly weak either.SPY - February 14, 2008  Note the moving average line on the volume portion of the graph.  I would feel much stronger about the rally if the volume were to spike as it did during the two rally days near the end of January.  In any event, we’re rallying it appears.  Why?

Remember the game plan a few days ago?  Yesterday, retail sales came in above expectations at 0.3%, sending futures skyward.  This morning we have jobless claims.  Anything under 360K I believe will send the markets even higher and could potentially signal a bottom, at least in the short term.  We still have the credit and housing issues, but rather work on those two issues and not have to worry about the consumer themselves.

Jobless claims in about 5 minutes.  I’ll keep you posted.  Current future levels are reading slightly positive by 6 points on the YMs (Mini-Dow).

Category Categories: Market Pulse | Tag Tags: | Comments Comments

  • reno
    There's a downtrend line from Dec. 25 of last year to Feb. 1st that it hit today.
  • I see that trendline. It's a secondary trendline IMO. There's still an overlying trendline starting closer to the beginning of December. Then again it doesn't matter because the markets have given up practically everything they've gained this week.
  • Jim
    I think we are far from bottom and are just at the start of a depression in the United States.
  • Maybe not a depression, but a mild slowdown most definitely. We'll see what happens when GDP numbers come out later.
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