Investing Adventures

Friday, March 14, 2008

February CPI Unchanged

Filed under: FOMC, Market Pulse — Jorge @ 5:59 am

CPI report came out a few minutes ago showing core inflation, ex-food and energy I believe, remained unchanged in February. This allows the Fed to cut interest rates further next week if they deem it necessary. Everything I said about doom-and-gloom a couple of days ago can be tossed out the window. Forget the fact that we’re seeing record prices in oil and gold and the dollar’s weakness against everything (including the Peso I bet!). With CPI unchanged, expect the markets to be expecting their anticipated 75 bp cut.

If the current levels hold, expect the markets to move higher. For how long, I couldn’t say. Frankly, I’d rather ride The Hulk at Universal Studios’ Islands of Adventure. At least on that roller coaster, you know what’s coming when.

DJIA - March 13, 2008

Here’s the DJIA chart from yesterday’s close. Notice how we retraced Wednesday’s losses and bumped up against resistance again almost perfectly this time. If we can close above resistance today, coupled with the Fed’s imminent rate cut next week and Visa’s IPO (largest IPO in history I believe at $16b), expect the markets to go higher.

@YMM8 - March 14, 2008 Pre-Market

Here’s a chart of the Dow Futures, known as the YMs. This chart is of the June futures contracts so volume’s a bit light since the rollover from March to June just occurred yesterday. Notice anything? Although volume’s lacking on the first half of the chart since these are the June contracts (the March contracts show the same graph with strong volume), doesn’t it look like an inverted head and shoulders with the neckline right around 12,200? So now the question is, was last week’s action the market bottom? Normally, inverted H&S patterns are a reversal signal, right? Then again the markets are so news driven technical patterns have been blown out recently. I still think we’re in need of going lower but for the short time, it looks as if we may be headed higher if this inverted H&S holds and the markets get their beloved rate cuts next week.

Edit:  Here’s a graph of the March Dow Futures.  The inverted H&S shows up quite a bit better since volume’s a bit heavier.

@YMH8 - March 14, 2008 Pre-Market

Thursday, March 13, 2008

The Perfect Storm?

Filed under: Market Pulse — Jorge @ 5:49 am

Some folks say we’re in a recession. Others say we’ve hit the bottom. The truth of the matter is that no one has any concrete idea about what’s going on. But I can only guess as to what’s going to happen, at least short term.

Let’s start with yesterday’s action. As I suggested after the major run up Tuesday, we had somewhat of a resistance ceiling on the S&P and DJIA. What happened after yesterday’s close?

S&P500 - March 12, 2008

For a brief second, we went above resistance on the S&P (and the DJIA too if you don’t believe me!) and quickly retraced back below yesterday’s close ending lower.

Now, this morning brought some more bad news to the markets. First, the Carlyle Group’s mortgage-bond fund is nearing collapse after it defaulted on some $10+ billion. Them, as well as Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. (TMA), had been issued margin calls, essentially forcing them to put up more collateral. The problem is, investors are still very weary of allowing mortgage-based assets to be used as collateral. Therefore, unless some sort of bailout occurs, the Carlyle Group’s mortgage-bond fund will ultimately collapse. I think TMA might be saved but it’s still too early to tell.

So you have two mortgage groups on the brink of collapse. What next? Well oil hit $110 / barrel. Gold topped $1000 / oz this morning. While jobless claims remained unchanged, retail sales for February fell by about 0.6%. Did I mention the $ vs. Yen hit a 12 year low with the exchange rate now at $1 : 100¥ Yen? The Euro (€) is at an all time high against the dollar as well.

Don’t forget that next week the FOMC meets. The markets have priced in a 50 basis point cut. To be honest, I don’t care what most of the pundits say. We’re in a recession and the markets still have room to go lower. The news hasn’t gotten any better since Helicopter Ben dropped $200 billion on the markets.

Anyone taking bets on seeing oil reach $120 / barrel and gold touch $1100 / oz by the end of the month?

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Not to Burst the Bullish Bubble…

Filed under: Market Pulse — Jorge @ 8:25 pm

S&P500 - March 11, 2008DJIA - March 11, 2008

Monday, March 10, 2008

April Birthday Bash – Here’s Your Gift!

Filed under: Blog Updates — Jorge @ 6:18 am

My birthday’s coming up in about a month, and besides a planned Wii party (I know, I might be too old for it, but they’re fun!), why not celebrate in cyberspace?  Now, before you say anything, yes, this is a small blog.  With that said, instead of you folks giving me gifts (I’m accepting shares of JMBA if anyone’s interested… hah!), I’d prefer to give back.   What better way than to offer free blog reviews?  Here’s the deal.  Leave me a message in this thread or under the Contact Us page with your blog’s title and link.  Each week I’ll try and review 2-3 blogs.  That’s it!  No catch, no request for links. Nada, zip, zilch.  So what are you waiting for?  You only have until April 17th to enter.

Good luck this week.  Looks as if we’re opening up choppy this morning but with these markets you honestly never know anymore.

Friday, March 7, 2008

College as a Safe Haven for Adventuring

Filed under: Adventure Series — Jorge @ 6:22 am

As most of you know, I’m a graduate student in here in Florida since 2000.  My financial background is about as average as you can get.  My parents are considered middle class, and as a result, financial aid isn’t as readily available.  In my opinion, students from financial backgrounds similar to mine are the ones that are hit the hardest.  We’re forced to find creative ways to fund our schooling while absorbing large amounts of debt.  Folks higher in the financial food chain normally can afford the skyrocketing prices of college (although it’s becoming much harder for them as well).  Those lower on the financial chain have a variety of programs available to them, some being addition federal help, grants, scholarships based on financial need, etc.

Before you say anything, this isn’t a rant against the education system and the government.  I believe the government should do more for the middle class, but historically that’s not been the case.  In any event, and even more so for students in my position, you should be looking forward to taking risks, financially, while in school.  But how can some of us take risks when we’re barely able to survive?

That’s the key.  I’m sure some of you are tired of living off the typical college staples (ramen, pizza, cheap beer).  So what can you do about it?   I’m currently taking loans from the federal government, some of which are subsidized interest wise, while others aren’t.  What does this mean?  It means that while I’m at school, about half of all loans I take out from the federal government are effectively interest free.  Subsidized loans are just that – the government pays the interest while you’re in school.  So take advantage.  Am I advocating going into debt while in school?  Yes!  What reason do you have, while in school, to not take advantage of interest free money and explore any ideas you may have?  I know, most students like to go out and party and all that jazz.  But for those that are focused on the future right now, why not take $2,000 or $5,000 or even $10,000 and learn the markets?  Or take ownership in a business?  Or even start your own?

I know what you’re thinking.  It’s a loan.  You will have to pay it back once you’re out of the system.  But honestly, when you’re pushing $50k, $75k, or in my case close to $100k, what’s another $5-10k?  Who’s to say you can’t turn that $5-10k into $10-20k while you’re finishing up your degree?  Sure, you could lose it all, but what’s another $5-10k when most adults are taking anywhere from 10 to 30 years paying off their student loans. 

Or if you prefer, you could always take that $5-10k and stick it in a CD or Bond.  Your ROI might be enough to help cover rising costs due to current inflation rates.  Or perhaps you could take your friends out for a round of drinks.

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