This week should promise to be full of excitement as the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday to decide the fate of the U.S. economy. Well perhaps not the fate, but they will decide on new interest rate policy. At this point, any further rate cuts will probably signal financial suicide, so expect the FOMC not to cut rates. However, some analysts in the financial world are figuring a rate increase from the Fed this week in order to battle inflation and to make an attempt in strengthening the dollar against the rest of the world. Futures this week are showing rates will remain stable at 2.00%. A rate increase at this point would be more symbolic than helpful as it would signal that the inflationary pressures the U.S. has been experiencing are indeed real and a priority. As most of you know, it’s gotten a bit expensive to eat and drive into work. Expect a stronger inflationary statement from the FOMC this week.
On Tuesday, we have consumer confidence at 10:00 am EST. Wednesday brings Durable Goods (8:30 EST), New Home Sales (10:00 EST), and the FOMC announcement (02:15 EST). Thursday’s a fairly important economic day with last quarter’s GDP and Jobless Claims (08:30 am EST), as well as Existing Home Sales (10:00 am EST). And rounding out the week on Friday is Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 am EST. Details can be found here.
Futures were up over 50 points last night but are currently up about 10 points. I’m looking for some sort of a dead cat bounce, but at this rate, I don’t know if it’ll happen. We’ll see!
For those interested, Carl Icahn’s blog, The Icahn Report, is now live. Enjoy!
P.S. I think I have the most contrarian portfolio imaginable.
Yesterday was the worst trading day I’ve had in my year of trading. The worst part? I was actually short the markets yesterday. In the spirit of bitterness, I’m predicting I’ll lose about another 10% of my portfolio today (or about $300). Thoughts?
I hate expiry week… I really, really hate expiry week.
Quick update on the crude front. Crude just hit $139.89 early this morning which may be the reason why futures have taken a large hit pre-market. Crude is currently trading at $138.35. I know Goldman and others were predicting crude to $150, but who knows. Maybe we’ll see $150 by the end of the week?
Busy weekend this weekend, eh? First on the docket is the financial sector. Lehman this weekend had some sort of secret meeting with its board. Remember the last time a financial met secretly over the weekend (Hint: BSC!)? Over the weekend, LEH has officially removed their COO and CFO and may be in talks to sell the company. Blackstone I believe purchased a 30% stake or is looking to purchase a stake in the company. This morning, LEH posted it’s first ever loss coming in at a whopping $2.8 billion.
More news on the financial front involves AIG. Over the weekend, AIG CEO Sullivan was removed and replaced by a former Citigroup executive and current AIG chairman, Robert Willumstad. No clue about Willumstad, but apparently he may have ties to another former AIG CEO, Maurice Greenberg, whom I believe is currently under investigation by the SEC. In any event, I’m sure all three will prosper handsomely hah!
Finally, not only is medication cheap in Mexico, but so is gasoline. San Diego folks are actually traveling to Mexico just to fill their gas tanks. Scary stuff if you ask me.