Crude is now over $125 this morning.  Be very careful.  As oil goes higher, there’s very little chance the markets can follow.  AIG also missed earnings last night which has helped put a damper on the markets this morning.  Futures are down about 90 points with fair value around positive 40, for a net difference at the open of about -130.  I don’t forsee this being a pretty day.

Crude futures earlier in the day rose to $113.90 and settled near that level today.

Perhaps it’s a lack of experience, but if two of the most basic needs for the US population, food and energy, are increasing as a pretty good rate, as well as crude and gasoline (closed near $3.35 per gallon today) are rising as well, why is the market taking it as good news? If people are forced to spend more on food and energy, shouldn’t that result in less money available for spending, resulting in a further slowing of the economy?

Earnings Report

Washington Mutual (WM) reported a loss of $1.40 per share while Intel (INTC) came in at $0.25 per share. WM’s earnings report was in line with estimates from last week and as a result are up about $0.20 in after hours trading. INTC, while reporting earnings in line with estimates, reported margins higher than expected. It also appears that INTC is reporting earnings for the rest of the year to remain unchanged which is helping to offset any ideas of a slowdown with the chip maker. INTC’s currently up about $1.75 in after hours trading as a result.

GE’s drop this afternoon was the largest it had ever seen since the crash of 1987. But what’s even more shocking isn’t necessarily the price drop but the volume. On average, GE trades around 60 million shares per day. Today? 366.1 million. How many shares were traded on the NYSE at the end of the day today? 1.26 billion shares. 25% of all share transactions involved GE today (thanks to the Shadowtrader for pointing this out). This miss is not to be taken lightly.

Over on the Option Addict, some traders were signaling GE as the company to watch in order to push the markets higher, and with good reason. Here’s a graph of GE again; however, notice the blue line overlaying the black. The blue line is the Dow ($INDU on Prophet charts). Note the similar movements by both lines. Time and time again, the Dow will eventually diverge on GE. In this case, if the same situation were to hold true, it would be expected that the Dow has at least another 300-400 points of downside before settling down. With the good correlation between the two, it’s not unlikely to see a retest of recent lows.

Need another potential reason to see that the bottom has yet to form in the markets? Take a look at the VIX over the past year. Notice the upward trending line. You should see approximately 4 retests of that line over the past year. In each case, the VIX has managed to test the 30-32 levels before retesting that trending line. If the same pattern hold true this time around, today’s bounce off that line could signal a bullish (and therefore potentially bearish) move in the VIX back to the 30-32 level near the end of May.

Does all of this information mean we’re headed back down to the lows of January? Of course not. Any number of items can occur at any time. These markets are very news driven right now so it’s almost impossible to predict what’s going on. I will say that I don’t believe we’ve seen the bottom just yet. I’d like to see that retest of the January lows first.

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Alcoa (NYSE: AA) today announced first quarter 2008 income from continuing operations of $303 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, versus $624 million, or $0.74 per share in the fourth quarter of 2007. Excluding restructuring and tax impacts, income from continuing operations was $361 million or $0.44 per share, up 20 percent on a comparable basis from the prior quarter, which included a favorable restructuring adjustment and tax benefits totaling $323 million or $0.38 per share. First quarter 2007 income from continuing operations excluding restructuring and tax impacts was $691 million, or $0.79.

Three of four business segments achieved significant after-tax operating income (ATOI) increases from the fourth quarter of 2007, with segment ATOI up 42 percent excluding packaging. Earnings for the first quarter were compressed by higher input and energy costs, and the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar. Currency negatively impacted results by $68 million or $0.08 per share on a sequential basis, as the U.S. dollar deteriorated against most major currencies.

Net income for the quarter was $303 million, or $0.37. Net income was $632 million, or $0.75 in the fourth quarter of 2007 and $662 million, or $0.75 in the first quarter of 2007.

Revenues for the 2008 first quarter were $7.4 billion, flat from the previous quarter, but a six percent increase excluding the revenue of the packaging and consumer business, which was sold in February 2008. Fourth quarter 2007 revenues were $7.4 billion, and revenues were $7.9 billion in the first quarter of 2007.

“We have generated strong returns in the face of challenging economic conditions and three of our segments – primary, flat-rolled and engineered products and solutions – achieved substantial ATOI growth,” said Alain Belda, Alcoa Chairman and CEO. “Upstream margins were squeezed by higher energy costs and a weaker U.S. dollar, but the global market remains tight and prices are near historic highs, primarily driven by demand in Asia, especially China.

“Our engineered products and solutions business delivered its strongest quarter ever, driven by robust aerospace and industrial gas turbine sales and productivity improvements,” said Belda. “Market fundamentals remain strong and we are well positioned to boost returns when the North American and European economies rebound.”

Cost of goods sold as a percent of revenues was 79.9 percent, a 340 basis point improvement versus the fourth quarter of 2007.

The Company funded numerous growth investments in the quarter including the new Juruti bauxite mine and Sao Luis refinery in Brazil; the strategic investment with Chinalco in Rio Tinto plc; and the acquisition of two aerospace fastening companies. In the quarter, capital expenditures were $748 million, 60 percent of which was devoted to growth projects. In addition, the Company repurchased approximately 14 million shares in the first quarter of 2008 under its approved share re-purchase authorization.

The Company’s debt-to-capital ratio stood at 31.5 percent at the end of the quarter, within the Company’s target range. The Company’s 12-month trailing ROC stood at 10.7 percent at the end of the first quarter 2008, following significant growth investments. Excluding investments in growth, the Company’s ROC was 13.5 percent.

HOPKINTON, Mass., Oct. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — EMC Corporation , the world leader in information infrastructure solutions, today announced record third-quarter revenue and net income. EMC has now delivered seventeen consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth marked by strong, balanced execution across all its business lines and major geographies.

Total consolidated revenue for the third quarter of 2007 was $3.3 billion, an increase of 17% over the $2.8 billion reported for the third quarter of 2006. GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $492.9 million or $0.23 per diluted share, 77% higher than the GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.13 reported for the year-ago period. GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 includes net gains of $115.2 million, primarily from the sale of six million shares of EMC’s interest in VMware to Cisco Systems. Excluding this item, net income was $377.8 million or $0.17 per diluted share, an increase of 31% year-over-year. During the quarter, EMC generated operating cash flow of $718 million, an increase of 57% compared with the same period a year ago and free cash flow of $475 million, an increase of 124% year-over- year.

“Solid global execution of our strategy resulted in record third-quarter financial results,” said Joe Tucci, EMC Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Customers around the world are benefiting from the breadth and quality of our information infrastructure product and services portfolio, which provides them with the most cost-effective way to store, protect, optimize, and leverage their vast and growing quantities of strategic information. We see broad opportunities in the global marketplace, and we will continue to drive profitable growth by furthering technology integration across our portfolio, investing in research and development, and expanding into the fastest-growing global markets.”

Tucci continued, “Among the many standouts during the quarter was VMware’s quarterly performance and the completion of the initial public offering of approximately 10% of VMware. VMware is not only one of the fastest-growing businesses in the history of the software industry, but it has also created an entire IT category based on one of the very few game-changing technologies out there today. The IPO has enabled EMC to expose and unlock more of VMware’s value for shareholders.”

EMC systems revenue increased 9% year-over-year and represented 43% of total third-quarter revenue. Software license and maintenance revenue increased 25% year-over-year and accounted for 41% of total third-quarter revenue. Professional services, systems maintenance and other services revenue grew by 25% year-over-year and represented 16% of total third-quarter revenue.

Revenue from North America increased 15% compared with the same period a year ago and represented 59% of total third-quarter revenue. Revenue from operations outside of North America grew 21% year-over-year, highlighted by double-digit year-over-year revenue growth in EMC’s Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia-Pacific and Japan (APJ) regions.

“We demonstrated crisp business and financial execution around the world with operating income growing faster than revenue and free cash flow more than doubling compared to the same period a year ago,” said David Goulden, EMC Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “We remain focused on driving operating leverage across the business. To continue to return value back to shareholders, we are also increasing our previously announced stock buyback commitment from $1 billion to $2 billion. Based on our results year- to-date and our expectations for a solid fourth quarter, we are now very clearly on track to exceed the annual financial targets we set in January.”

Third-Quarter Highlights

EMC’s Information Storage business, which includes revenue from storage systems, storage software and related customer and professional services, reached $2.6 billion, an increase of 8% compared with the year-ago period. Third-quarter growth in this business was largely driven by strong customer demand for EMC’s industry-leading CLARiiON and Celerra networked storage systems and from EMC’s expansive information protection portfolio, including the EMC Disk Library for back-up to disk, EMC Avamar for data de-duplication and EMC Recoverpoint for CDP. EMC Smarts resource management and EMC Rainfinity global file virtualization software experienced double-digit, year- over-year revenue growth. In the third quarter, EMC also announced its expansion of the industry’s broadest set of storage technologies – spanning from entry-level to the high-end, helping customers of all sizes store information more cost-effectively, securely and intelligently.

EMC’s Content Management and Archiving business posted double-digit revenue growth, increasing third-quarter revenue 27% year-over-year to $189 million. New license revenue increased 34% on a year-over-year basis. During the quarter, EMC announced the Documentum 6 platform, a key component of EMC’s suite of enterprise content management products. With the release of Documentum 6, EMC continues to lead the industry into the next generation of enterprise content management, as it moves from a separate application platform to an integral part of an organization’s information infrastructure.

RSA information security revenues for the third quarter of 2007 grew 22% when compared with the results of the division’s constituent companies in the year-ago period, reaching $133 million in revenue. This growth was primarily driven by RSA’s core authentication business, as well as its consumer-facing applications and information and event management offerings. The division also continued to see success in its comprehensive security solutions for businesses seeking to comply with regulatory mandates and managing information risk holistically across the enterprise.

VMware Inc. , which is the global leader in virtual infrastructure software for industry-standard systems and is majority-owned by EMC, had third-quarter revenues of $354 million, an increase of approximately 90% compared to the year-ago quarter. Visit http://ir.vmware.com for more information about the virtualization software leader’s third-quarter financial results.

About EMC

EMC Corporation is the world’s leading developer and provider of information infrastructure technology and solutions that enable organizations of all sizes to transform the way they compete and create value from their information. Information about EMC’s products and services can be found at www.EMC.com.

EMC, Documentum, CLARiiON, Celerra, Avamar, Smarts and Rainfinity are registered trademarks of EMC Corporation. VMware is a registered trademark of VMware, Inc. RSA is a registered trademark of RSA Security Inc. All other trademarks used are the property of their respective owners.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains “forward-looking statements” as defined under the Federal Securities Laws. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of certain risk factors, including but not limited to: (i) adverse changes in general economic or market conditions; (ii) delays or reductions in information technology spending; (iii) our ability to protect our proprietary technology; (iv) risks associated with managing the growth of our business, including risks associated with acquisitions and investments and the challenges and costs of integration, restructuring and achieving anticipated synergies; (v) fluctuations in VMware, Inc.’s operating results and risks associated with trading of VMware stock; (vi) competitive factors, including but not limited to pricing pressures and new product introductions; (vii) the relative and varying rates of product price and component cost declines and the volume and mixture of product and services revenues; (viii) component and product quality and availability; (ix) the transition to new products, the uncertainty of customer acceptance of new product offerings and rapid technological and market change; (x) insufficient, excess or obsolete inventory; (xi) war or acts of terrorism; (xii) the ability to attract and retain highly qualified employees; (xiii) fluctuating currency exchange rates; and (xiv) other one- time events and other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time in EMC’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. EMC disclaims any obligation to update any such forward-looking statements after the date of this release.

Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This release contains non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures, which are used as measures of EMC’s performance or liquidity, should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for, measures of EMC’s financial performance or liquidity prepared in accordance with GAAP. EMC’s non-GAAP financial measures may be defined differently than similar terms used by other companies, and accordingly, care should be exercised in understanding how EMC defines its non-GAAP financial measures.

Where specified in the accompanying schedules for various periods entitled “Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP,” certain items noted on each such specific schedule (including, for certain time periods where noted, amounts relating to tax benefits, net gains on investments, including gain on sale of VMware stock, restructuring and IPR&D charges relating to EMC on a consolidated basis, and stock-based compensation expense and intangible amortization relating to only EMC Information Infrastructure) are excluded from the non-GAAP financial measures.

EMC’s management uses the non-GAAP financial measures in the accompanying schedules to gain an understanding of EMC’s comparative operating performance (when comparing such results with previous periods or forecasts) and future prospects and excludes the above-listed items from its internal financial statements for purposes of its internal budgets and each reporting segment’s financial goals. These non-GAAP financial measures are used by EMC’s management in their financial and operating decision-making because management believes they reflect EMC’s ongoing business in a manner that allows meaningful period-to-period comparisons. EMC’s management believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information to investors and others (a) in understanding and evaluating EMC’s current operating performance and future prospects in the same manner as management does, if they so choose, and (b) in comparing in a consistent manner the Company’s current financial results with the Company’s past financial results.

This release also includes disclosures regarding free cash flow which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less additions to property, plant and equipment and capitalized software development costs. EMC uses free cash flow, among other measures, to evaluate the ability of its operations to generate cash that is available for purposes other than capital expenditures and capitalized software development costs. Management believes that information regarding free cash flow provides investors with an important perspective on the cash available to make strategic acquisitions and investments, repurchase shares, service debt and fund ongoing operations. As free cash flow is not a measure of liquidity calculated in accordance with GAAP, free cash flow should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, the analysis provided in the statement of cash flows.

All of the foregoing non-GAAP financial measures have limitations. Specifically, the non-GAAP financial measures that exclude the items noted above do not include all items of income and expense that affect EMC’s operations. Further, these non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP, may not be comparable to non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies and do not reflect any benefit that such items may confer on EMC. Management compensates for these limitations by also considering EMC’s financial results as determined in accordance with GAAP.