Investing Adventures

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Taken over by Regulators

Filed under: Alerts, Features — Tags: , , — Jorge @ 8:04 am

Ooooh boy.  Let the fun begin.  I’m watching the 11am news conference by Hank Paulson.  More info once its released.

Update:  Here’s the shortened version of the story as I see it.  The government’s taking over Fannie and Freddie, removing the CEOs of both companies, and eliminating both preferred and common dividend.  By eliminating the dividends, I don’t think there’s any interest in holding the stock.  Does that mean that FRE and FNM are headed to zero Monday?  My guess would be yes but you never know.

The fallout from the takeover may result in a nice little pop come Monday.  But I’d have to agree with everyone else out in the blogging financial world.  The rally will give great opportunities to short the market and stocks in general, but I can’t see it lasting.  What the government’s done is effectively made the public foot the bill.  On top of everything else, I don’t see how the public can afford any more debt.  Just wish the public would assume my student loans…

Tomorrow should be a fun day.  Dow +300 tomorrow?  Nah.  I think the bears squash the rally tomorrow.  I’d even be inclined to say we fall hard the latter half of the trading day tomorrow.  But in a bear market, anything goes.

Personal update:  PhD qualifiers are Sept. 20th.  Once the 20th comes and goes, I’ll be back full time.  Hopefully in good spirits.

Monday, June 30, 2008

I am a Trend Trader

Filed under: Features — Tags: , — Jorge @ 5:43 am

Over the past few days I’ve come to realize something as my portfolio’s reaching for all time highs. I am a trend trader, not a swing or long or day trader. A trend trader. As usual, let’s see what Investopedia has to say about it:

A trading strategy that attempts to capture gains through the analysis of an asset’s momentum in a particular direction. The trend trader enters into a long position when a stock is trending upward (successively higher highs). Conversely, a short position is taken when the stock is in a down trend (successively lower highs).

Over the past year I’ve tried a little bit of everything. I started stock trading on Zecco. Buy and hold. Didn’t work and was extremely slow, especially with a small account. I could have tried to trade penny stocks, but the stigma of the pink sheets was, well… crummy. I found options and started trading them exclusively about a month after my buy and hold phase. Jumped onto thinkorswim’s platform in November after finding the Option Addict .

I learned the ways of the technical analysis over the following months while attempting to trade options here and there. I’d try picking them at what I thought were decent entry points and exit at predefined percentage gains. And yet, I nearly blew my account out. About a month ago, completely out of nowhere, a light bulb went off. It was something so easy that anyone would be surprised why they didn’t think of it earlier. And it all led back to the main reason why those few traders out there are the successful ones. It’s all about the risk and money management. The minute you learn money management, this game becomes much, much easier.

Money management (possibly) under my belt, the next step was to increase the war chest. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been placing trades left and right, tapping my account out on multiple occasions. Never had I traded so many contracts and so many positions all at one time. But so far it’s been fairly comfortable. And how have I been doing that? Riding trends. I am not a day trader. I’m not a short term trader nor am I a long term trader. I am a trend trader. I pick my entries at support/resistance and ride the wave.

Example? Look at XL Capital (XL).

Will it always be that simple? I doubt it. Am I just lucky? Perhaps. But I have noticed one thing. Even three months ago, I would have sold and been done with the trade. Now? I’m finally starting to accomplish what everyone talks about. Let the winners run and cut your losers short. So far, XL’s been a winner. And the best one I’ve had to date. My identity’s been found. I am a trend trader.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Making Visa My Bitch

Filed under: Equities, Features, Technical Analysis — Tags: , , — Jorge @ 9:24 pm

Over the past few months, I’ve seen my portfolio whittle away to almost nothing. Granted, I started with practically nothing (in the market’s view) but still. After trading for nearly a year, I still have quite a bit to learn. However, some folks at thinkorswim have given me a task in order to refine my trading skills. In short, in order to be a great trader, it pays to be a specialist. That is, if you want to become an options trader, trade only options and nothing else. Futures trader? Same thing.

There’s a twist to the homework assignment. Now that you’re focused on being specialized in a vehicle, take that one step further and specialize in a single underlying and just that single underlying. Learn how it moves, how it trades, what items affect it. Learn it for an entire year. While that seems somewhat excessive, it does appear to be a good exercise in focus and trading refinement. That’s why I’ve decided with the transparency of my trades, Visa will now be my project. That’s right. Visa will now be my bitch.

I will try my hardest to trade Visa exclusively. There will be times I will deviate, if only because some setups out there are so blatantly obvious or the Option Addict is on a tear (when is he never?). So starting tomorrow, here’s the game plan for Visa now that I’ve sold what May calls I had left on it.

Visa May 1, 2008

There’s the short term game plan for Visa. I’m waiting for a short term pullback near the $83 region. With the recent $15 run-up in 48 hours, I’m expecting some sort of a breather. The other alternative is to buy on a breakout of $87.50, or today’s 52-week high and maintain a tight stop. With May options coming close to expiration, I will most likely be looking at June calls, somewhere in the 90/95 area. I don’t forsee Visa heading below $80 any time soon to be quite honest.

Let’s see how the game plan works tomorrow. Good night!

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