Another rough day and once again it’s inexperience that causes me so much pain.  Today additional funds were deposited into my account, finally giving me access to futures trading.  My first NQ futures trade was successful, no matter how small the victory.  Subsequent attempts at trading the NQs resulted in failure.

Trades taken:  5 x NQ

P/L: -$90

After becoming frustrated early in the day, I took the rest of the day off.  Going back, I realized a few things about my first attempt at futures trading.

First, my stops were entirely too tight.  I didn’t give my futures time to move and as a result I paid dearly for it with money left on the table.  Trailing stops also don’t work well in a choppy market.  This morning, the markets were extremely choppy.  Of course hindsight’s 20/20, but it would have been best to sit out most of the morning.  Around lunch time, futures across the board dropped but by then I was done for the day.  This afternoon was probably the easiest time to have made a nice sum of money.  C’est la vie.

Tomorrow’s another day although I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll see choppy action in the morning.  Maybe taking the rest of the week off isn’t a bad idea.

By the way, crude just topped $124.

STOP DAYTRADING!

Someone please remind me to do the above. I’m not an options day trader. I’m losing too much money trying to day trade. Sigh.

Trades taken: 2 (Visa puts)

P/L: -$50

Today appears to be a better day. First, my deposits into my account have cleared. Our tax rebates have finally come in as well. Overall, I have a bit more firepower to play with so in terms of being properly capitalized and diversified, we’re one step closer.

On that note, I may dip my hand at trading the NQ futures. I’m still on the fence about it but we’ll see how the day’s actions go.

Oil topped $122 yesterday before settling near $121. Oil is currently sitting at $121.80. Goldman Sachs is predicting oil near $200 within the next 6 to 18 months which is scary in and of itself. Note that a couple of years ago, Goldman predicted $100 oil within the next two years. Look where we’re at now.

Stay sharp today!

Futures are looking a bit lower this morning.  Sometime last night futures spiked down about 20-30 points for some reason.  My guess is the Asian markets had opened up and were hedging against potential downside this morning but it’s anyone’s guess.

Visa’s looking weak this morning with pre-market action taking it below $82.  I will most likely take a nibble at $81 which appears to be a good support base with two failed breakdown attempts over the past week at that level.  If $81 does break down, $77 appears to be the next logical support base.  I still don’t think well see Visa under $80, but one never knows.

Option Addict has released his latest watchlist this morning.  If you’re in need of ideas, just starting out, or need to see how JK works, head on over and check it out.

The FOMC met yesterday and this morning regarding the state of the economy.  The markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut.  So far, the markets are up about 100 points prior to the announcement in approximately 60 minutes.  Personally, I hope the Fed decides to hold firm and leave that bullet in its chamber.  The markets need time to work through the 300 basis points the FOMC has cut over the past 6-7 months.  It takes the economy approximately 6 months to feel the full effects of a rate cut (at least, that’s what I remember from basic macroeconomics).  With GDP holding steady at +0.6%, I think the fears of recession are on their way out the door.  Stay tuned for the announcement!

Earlier this morning, crude oil finally rose above $115 a barrel (CLK8).  With oil rising at a rapid pace once again, commodities are soon to follow.  Some analysts such as the Option Addict feel commodities will push higher as it did about two months ago.  In anticipation of a potential breakout, I’ve jumped into the bandwagon with a small position in DBA, the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund.  Note the level of support around $39.  Here’s how I’m playing the ag game.  I’m currently in DBA May 40 Calls with a stop right under $39 and a price target of $42.  The two bottoming tail hammers also bode well for a bullish position.

With oil, gold, gasoline, commodities, and everything else rising at a rapid pace, perhaps it’s the best time to jump into the oils such as Exxon (XOM) and others?  Actually, I may have found a stock to short.  Take a look at Petroleo Brasileiro, also known as PetroBras (PBR).  For those keeping up with recent news, PBR may have found new patches of

drillable crude in Brazil and as a result spiked about $12 Monday.  But take a look at the chart.  Note the action from the past couple of months.  It appears that a double top may be in the works on PBR.  A double top is normally a major reversal pattern that’s found after a extended run up.  In order to confirm, PBR would need to bounce off the $125 resistance and break $97.50.  However, working in that channel alone can net about 25 points.  It’s an interesting play and something I’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few days.