Investing Adventures » Futures

The Week Ahead…

Jorge — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 12:04:36 +0000

This week should promise to be full of excitement as the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday to decide the fate of the U.S. economy. Well perhaps not the fate, but they will decide on new interest rate policy. At this point, any further rate cuts will probably signal financial suicide, so expect the FOMC not to cut rates. However, some analysts in the financial world are figuring a rate increase from the Fed this week in order to battle inflation and to make an attempt in strengthening the dollar against the rest of the world. Futures this week are showing rates will remain stable at 2.00%. A rate increase at this point would be more symbolic than helpful as it would signal that the inflationary pressures the U.S. has been experiencing are indeed real and a priority. As most of you know, it’s gotten a bit expensive to eat and drive into work. Expect a stronger inflationary statement from the FOMC this week.

On Tuesday, we have consumer confidence at 10:00 am EST. Wednesday brings Durable Goods (8:30 EST), New Home Sales (10:00 EST), and the FOMC announcement (02:15 EST). Thursday’s a fairly important economic day with last quarter’s GDP and Jobless Claims (08:30 am EST), as well as Existing Home Sales (10:00 am EST). And rounding out the week on Friday is Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 am EST. Details can be found here.

Futures were up over 50 points last night but are currently up about 10 points. I’m looking for some sort of a dead cat bounce, but at this rate, I don’t know if it’ll happen. We’ll see!

Weekly Recap – May 5-9, 2008

Jorge — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:51:44 +0000

My focus this week was on Visa. Earlier in the week, I tried to short, figuring it was near the top. While I was wrong at the time, I was right overall. The past couple of days has seen Visa drop about 10%. Perfect play.. wrong time of entry.

Futures trading is pretty exciting. I’ve only been trading futures for about three days now, but I’ve learned quite a bit. With options, I pick a good entry/exit point and hold. Futures trading is much, much quicker taking a quick point or two and exiting. I think if I can get used to the fact that all I need is a point or two in my direction with futures trading, I may be alright. And I thought options trading was fast and exiting.

Weekly Profit / Loss: -$130

While not a huge loss, it’s a loss nonetheless. Next week is options expiry week. While I don’t care to trade during options expiry week, options pricing for the next month out is usually pretty decent. I’ll be compiling a shopping list and hopefully picking up a couple of trades here or there while I continue to learn the ropes of the futures market.

I’m on deck to potentially join the Virtual Office. While not as capitalized as they are, I think I can hold my own. And if not, I’m sure DT will promptly boot me, hah!

I have next week off once again so hopefully I can make some headway and perhaps turn a weekly profit. I’m in desperate need of one. Have a great weekend!

Daily Recap and Status – May 7, 2008

Jorge — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:39:59 +0000

Another rough day and once again it’s inexperience that causes me so much pain. Today additional funds were deposited into my account, finally giving me access to futures trading. My first NQ futures trade was successful, no matter how small the victory. Subsequent attempts at trading the NQs resulted in failure.

Trades taken: 5 x NQ

P/L: -$90

After becoming frustrated early in the day, I took the rest of the day off. Going back, I realized a few things about my first attempt at futures trading.

First, my stops were entirely too tight. I didn’t give my futures time to move and as a result I paid dearly for it with money left on the table. Trailing stops also don’t work well in a choppy market. This morning, the markets were extremely choppy. Of course hindsight’s 20/20, but it would have been best to sit out most of the morning. Around lunch time, futures across the board dropped but by then I was done for the day. This afternoon was probably the easiest time to have made a nice sum of money. C’est la vie.

Tomorrow’s another day although I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll see choppy action in the morning. Maybe taking the rest of the week off isn’t a bad idea.

By the way, crude just topped $124.

Early Morning Action

Jorge — Mon, 05 May 2008 12:53:47 +0000

Futures are looking a bit lower this morning. Sometime last night futures spiked down about 20-30 points for some reason. My guess is the Asian markets had opened up and were hedging against potential downside this morning but it’s anyone’s guess.

Visa’s looking weak this morning with pre-market action taking it below $82. I will most likely take a nibble at $81 which appears to be a good support base with two failed breakdown attempts over the past week at that level. If $81 does break down, $77 appears to be the next logical support base. I still don’t think well see Visa under $80, but one never knows.

Option Addict has released his latest watchlist this morning. If you’re in need of ideas, just starting out, or need to see how JK works, head on over and check it out.