Investing Adventures » Visa

Weekly Recap – May 5-9, 2008

Jorge — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:51:44 +0000

My focus this week was on Visa. Earlier in the week, I tried to short, figuring it was near the top. While I was wrong at the time, I was right overall. The past couple of days has seen Visa drop about 10%. Perfect play.. wrong time of entry.

Futures trading is pretty exciting. I’ve only been trading futures for about three days now, but I’ve learned quite a bit. With options, I pick a good entry/exit point and hold. Futures trading is much, much quicker taking a quick point or two and exiting. I think if I can get used to the fact that all I need is a point or two in my direction with futures trading, I may be alright. And I thought options trading was fast and exiting.

Weekly Profit / Loss: -$130

While not a huge loss, it’s a loss nonetheless. Next week is options expiry week. While I don’t care to trade during options expiry week, options pricing for the next month out is usually pretty decent. I’ll be compiling a shopping list and hopefully picking up a couple of trades here or there while I continue to learn the ropes of the futures market.

I’m on deck to potentially join the Virtual Office. While not as capitalized as they are, I think I can hold my own. And if not, I’m sure DT will promptly boot me, hah!

I have next week off once again so hopefully I can make some headway and perhaps turn a weekly profit. I’m in desperate need of one. Have a great weekend!

Daily Recap and Status – May 9, 2008

Jorge — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:02:08 +0000

The action today was anemic. Now I understand what folks like Dinosaur Trader and others complain about when the markets behave like today. It also didn’t help that oil reached a record $126.22ish at its high. Visa took another hit today, down another 4 points. It’s reaching my entry/exit target of ~$81. My feeling is that folks will begin to buy Visa next week and perhaps pin it near the 85 strike price but only Monday can tell. There’s quite a bit of call open interest from 80, 85, and 90, so I would expect Visa to recover rather nicely. With the larger bankroll I have, I’ll probably purchase one or two May 85 calls and one or two June 90s for a longer term hold.

Trades Taken: 3 x NQ

P/L: +$10

That’s right, I’m positive on the day and trading the NQs at that! A victory is a victory.

We’re off to Yappy Hour (happy hour for dogs… don’t ask). See you tomorrow!

Daily Recap and Status – May 8, 2008

Jorge — Fri, 09 May 2008 11:59:17 +0000

No trades taken yesterday due to other commitments. I was around in the morning and could have traded a perfect short on Visa but was unable to pull the trigger. I’ve noticed that happening more and more as of late which reminds me of my trading fears about 3 months ago after the markets crashed about 20%. But today’s another day and my account continues to grow from deposits. Need to work on fear… must reread Trading in the Zone…

Crude is now over $125 this morning. Be very careful. As oil goes higher, there’s very little chance the markets can follow. AIG also missed earnings last night which has helped put a damper on the markets this morning. Futures are down about 90 points with fair value around positive 40, for a net difference at the open of about -130. I don’t forsee this being a pretty day.

Daily Recap and Status – May 6, 2008

Jorge — Wed, 07 May 2008 11:59:39 +0000

STOP DAYTRADING!

Someone please remind me to do the above. I’m not an options day trader. I’m losing too much money trying to day trade. Sigh.

Trades taken: 2 (Visa puts)

P/L: -$50

Today appears to be a better day. First, my deposits into my account have cleared. Our tax rebates have finally come in as well. Overall, I have a bit more firepower to play with so in terms of being properly capitalized and diversified, we’re one step closer.

On that note, I may dip my hand at trading the NQ futures. I’m still on the fence about it but we’ll see how the day’s actions go.

Oil topped $122 yesterday before settling near $121. Oil is currently sitting at $121.80. Goldman Sachs is predicting oil near $200 within the next 6 to 18 months which is scary in and of itself. Note that a couple of years ago, Goldman predicted $100 oil within the next two years. Look where we’re at now.

Stay sharp today!

Short Visa in a Down Market? Not a Good Idea

Jorge — Tue, 06 May 2008 13:47:20 +0000

Took a short position with puts on Visa around the open with a stop at the high of $86.05. So far, VIsa’s holding up extremely well in what looks to be a rough day for the markets with the Dow down about 90 points. More than likely I’ll be stopped out of the position for a loss but we’ll see. I’ll update as the day goes on.

Update: As I figured, never short Visa. Ever. Out with a loss after commissions of $22.50.